Insights / us
SW
Smurfit Westrock PlcUS04/23/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.23%
P05–P95 span
10.61%
Neighbors
24
Sharpness
0.79
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+3.23%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
4/10(40%)
Below median
6/10(60%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.84%P25: -0.47%P50: 1.23%P75: 2.99%P95: 6.76%
Computed at: 04/24/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 23.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.