Insights / us
STLD
Steel Dynamics, Inc.US05/03/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.64%
P05–P95 span
7.35%
Neighbors
31
Sharpness
0.85
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-0.23%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -2.88%P25: -0.63%P50: 0.64%P75: 2.29%P95: 4.47%
Computed at: 05/04/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 30.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.