Insights / us
STLD
Steel Dynamics, Inc.US04/12/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-2.77%
P05–P95 span
27.15%
Neighbors
36
Sharpness
0.46
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+18.83%
Outer 90%
2/10(20%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -21.34%P25: -7.98%P50: -2.77%P75: -0.27%P95: 5.81%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 35.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.