Insights / us
SRE
SempraUS05/31/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.15%
P05–P95 span
10.31%
Neighbors
20
Sharpness
0.79
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
8 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+8
+3.76%
Outer 90%
8/8(100%)
Middle 50%
3/8(38%)
Above median
8/8(100%)
Below median
0/8(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.02%P25: -1.61%P50: -0.15%P75: 2.17%P95: 5.29%
Computed at: 06/01/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 19.3 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.