Insights / us
SRE
SempraUS05/20/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.28%
P05–P95 span
12.43%
Neighbors
36
Sharpness
0.75
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-0.07%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
7/10(70%)
Above median
4/10(40%)
Below median
6/10(60%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.33%P25: -2.91%P50: -1.28%P75: 0.19%P95: 6.11%
Computed at: 05/21/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 35.0 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.