Insights / us
SRE
SempraUS04/09/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-2.19%
P05–P95 span
11.21%
Neighbors
40
Sharpness
0.78
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-6.40%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
0/10(0%)
Below median
10/10(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -9.13%P25: -4.28%P50: -2.19%P75: -0.35%P95: 2.08%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 39.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.