Insights / us
SPG
Simon Property Group, Inc.US05/13/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.36%
P05–P95 span
16.43%
Neighbors
15
Sharpness
0.67
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+2.17%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
7/10(70%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.87%P25: -2.47%P50: 0.36%P75: 2.26%P95: 8.56%
Computed at: 05/14/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 14.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.