Insights / us
SPG
Simon Property Group, Inc.US05/10/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.51%
P05–P95 span
12.60%
Neighbors
29
Sharpness
0.75
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+2.07%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
7/10(70%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.84%P25: -2.50%P50: -0.51%P75: 0.84%P95: 6.76%
Computed at: 05/11/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 28.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.