Insights / us
SMCI
Super Micro Computer, Inc.US04/23/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.07%
P05–P95 span
14.69%
Neighbors
35
Sharpness
0.71
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+28.48%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
6/10(60%)
Below median
4/10(40%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.34%P25: -2.38%P50: -0.07%P75: 1.96%P95: 7.36%
Computed at: 04/24/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 34.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.