Insights / us
SMCI
Super Micro Computer, Inc.US04/15/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.58%
P05–P95 span
10.52%
Neighbors
24
Sharpness
0.79
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-0.65%
Outer 90%
4/10(40%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
5/10(50%)
Below median
5/10(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.65%P25: 0.15%P50: 1.58%P75: 3.22%P95: 6.87%
Computed at: 04/16/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 23.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.