Insights / us
SMCI
Super Micro Computer, Inc.US04/05/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.04%
P05–P95 span
18.35%
Neighbors
34
Sharpness
0.63
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+24.88%
Outer 90%
3/10(30%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.98%P25: -2.01%P50: -0.04%P75: 2.19%P95: 12.38%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 03:49 AM · ESS 33.2 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.