Insights / us
SJM
The J. M. Smucker CompanyUS06/07/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.25%
P05–P95 span
14.94%
Neighbors
33
Sharpness
0.70
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
3 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+3
+13.12%
Outer 90%
0/3(0%)
Middle 50%
0/3(0%)
Above median
3/3(100%)
Below median
0/3(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -9.53%P25: -5.12%P50: -1.25%P75: 1.26%P95: 5.40%
Computed at: 06/08/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 32.1 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.