Insights / us
SJM
The J. M. Smucker CompanyUS05/25/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.24%
P05–P95 span
12.08%
Neighbors
30
Sharpness
0.76
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+9.17%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
9/10(90%)
Above median
5/10(50%)
Below median
5/10(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.10%P25: -2.26%P50: -0.24%P75: 2.69%P95: 4.99%
Computed at: 05/26/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 29.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.