Insights / us
SJM
The J. M. Smucker CompanyUS05/12/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.27%
P05–P95 span
16.19%
Neighbors
30
Sharpness
0.68
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+5.10%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
7/10(70%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.28%P25: -0.34%P50: 1.27%P75: 3.57%P95: 7.91%
Computed at: 05/13/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 29.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.