Insights / us
SJM
The J. M. Smucker CompanyUS05/04/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.73%
P05–P95 span
13.53%
Neighbors
34
Sharpness
0.73
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+7.71%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.34%P25: -0.76%P50: 0.73%P75: 2.70%P95: 8.19%
Computed at: 05/05/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 33.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.