Insights / us
SJM
The J. M. Smucker CompanyUS04/27/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.07%
P05–P95 span
8.55%
Neighbors
34
Sharpness
0.83
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+3.87%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
9/10(90%)
Above median
7/10(70%)
Below median
3/10(30%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.53%P25: -0.39%P50: 1.07%P75: 2.56%P95: 5.02%
Computed at: 04/28/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 33.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.