Insights / us
ROIV
Roivant Sciences LtdUS06/03/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.38%
P05–P95 span
14.69%
Neighbors
21
Sharpness
0.71
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
5 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+5
+2.98%
Outer 90%
5/5(100%)
Middle 50%
4/5(80%)
Above median
4/5(80%)
Below median
1/5(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.32%P25: -3.59%P50: -1.38%P75: 1.88%P95: 8.37%
Computed at: 06/04/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 20.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.