Insights / us
PSX
Phillips 66US04/29/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.25%
P05–P95 span
10.07%
Neighbors
35
Sharpness
0.80
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-0.62%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.24%P25: -3.35%P50: -1.25%P75: 0.36%P95: 2.84%
Computed at: 04/30/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 34.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.