Insights / us
PSX
Phillips 66US04/14/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.61%
P05–P95 span
6.04%
Neighbors
9
Sharpness
0.88
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+9.87%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -2.60%P25: -0.56%P50: 0.61%P75: 1.56%P95: 3.44%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 8.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.