Insights / us
PSX
Phillips 66US04/08/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-2.87%
P05–P95 span
17.16%
Neighbors
9
Sharpness
0.66
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-5.05%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
9/10(90%)
Above median
1/10(10%)
Below median
9/10(90%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -15.15%P25: -7.31%P50: -2.87%P75: -0.39%P95: 2.01%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 8.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.