Insights / us
PM
Philip Morris International Inc.US06/03/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.45%
P05–P95 span
17.84%
Neighbors
23
Sharpness
0.64
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
5 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+5
+1.62%
Outer 90%
5/5(100%)
Middle 50%
4/5(80%)
Above median
2/5(40%)
Below median
3/5(60%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -12.03%P25: -2.26%P50: 0.45%P75: 2.32%P95: 5.80%
Computed at: 06/04/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 22.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.