Insights / us
PM
Philip Morris International Inc.US06/01/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+2.31%
P05–P95 span
11.98%
Neighbors
25
Sharpness
0.76
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
7 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+7
+6.24%
Outer 90%
7/7(100%)
Middle 50%
3/7(43%)
Above median
7/7(100%)
Below median
0/7(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -2.18%P25: 0.37%P50: 2.31%P75: 5.51%P95: 9.80%
Computed at: 06/02/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 24.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.