Insights / us
PM
Philip Morris International Inc.US04/15/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.37%
P05–P95 span
8.90%
Neighbors
32
Sharpness
0.82
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+5.27%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
7/10(70%)
Below median
3/10(30%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -2.62%P25: -0.07%P50: 1.37%P75: 2.86%P95: 6.28%
Computed at: 04/16/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 31.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.