Insights / us
PKG
Packaging Corporation of AmericaUS06/03/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.81%
P05–P95 span
15.70%
Neighbors
35
Sharpness
0.69
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
5 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+5
-0.49%
Outer 90%
5/5(100%)
Middle 50%
2/5(40%)
Above median
0/5(0%)
Below median
5/5(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.78%P25: -1.64%P50: 0.81%P75: 3.36%P95: 7.91%
Computed at: 06/04/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 34.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.