Insights / us
PKG
Packaging Corporation of AmericaUS05/25/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.10%
P05–P95 span
8.00%
Neighbors
18
Sharpness
0.84
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+4.63%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.43%P25: -1.28%P50: -0.10%P75: 0.92%P95: 4.57%
Computed at: 05/26/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 17.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.