Insights / us
PKG
Packaging Corporation of AmericaUS05/04/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+2.20%
P05–P95 span
10.39%
Neighbors
39
Sharpness
0.79
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-7.16%
Outer 90%
4/10(40%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
3/10(30%)
Below median
7/10(70%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -2.25%P25: 0.31%P50: 2.20%P75: 4.23%P95: 8.15%
Computed at: 05/05/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 38.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.