Insights / us
PHM
PulteGroup, Inc.US05/21/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.29%
P05–P95 span
8.41%
Neighbors
20
Sharpness
0.83
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+0.77%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
8/10(80%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -2.65%P25: -0.99%P50: 0.29%P75: 2.03%P95: 5.76%
Computed at: 05/22/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 19.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.