Insights / us
PHM
PulteGroup, Inc.US05/13/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.06%
P05–P95 span
12.20%
Neighbors
24
Sharpness
0.76
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+3.39%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
7/10(70%)
Above median
7/10(70%)
Below median
3/10(30%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.35%P25: -0.59%P50: 1.06%P75: 4.02%P95: 8.86%
Computed at: 05/14/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 23.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.