Insights / us
PHM
PulteGroup, Inc.US04/19/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.45%
P05–P95 span
12.97%
Neighbors
26
Sharpness
0.74
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-8.43%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
3/10(30%)
Below median
7/10(70%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.51%P25: -0.37%P50: 1.45%P75: 3.12%P95: 7.46%
Computed at: 04/20/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 25.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.