Insights / us
PGR
The Progressive CorporationUS06/07/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.36%
P05–P95 span
13.43%
Neighbors
24
Sharpness
0.73
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
3 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+3
+0.65%
Outer 90%
2/3(67%)
Middle 50%
2/3(67%)
Above median
2/3(67%)
Below median
1/3(33%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.79%P25: -2.15%P50: -0.36%P75: 0.89%P95: 5.64%
Computed at: 06/08/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 23.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.