PGR

The Progressive CorporationUS05/27/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move

-0.50%

P05–P95 span

10.28%

Neighbors

Sharpness

0.79

Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)

10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices

Realized @ D+10

+2.82%

Outer 90%

9/10(90%)

Middle 50%

4/10(40%)

Above median

6/10(60%)

Below median

4/10(40%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -5.02%P25: -1.59%P50: -0.50%P75: 1.49%P95: 5.26%

Computed at: 05/28/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 26.6 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.