PGR

The Progressive CorporationUS05/03/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move

+1.39%

P05–P95 span

10.23%

Neighbors

Sharpness

0.80

Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)

10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices

Realized @ D+10

+2.51%

Outer 90%

10/10(100%)

Middle 50%

1/10(10%)

Above median

1/10(10%)

Below median

9/10(90%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -5.35%P25: -0.06%P50: 1.39%P75: 2.69%P95: 4.88%

Computed at: 05/04/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 17.8 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.