Insights / us
PGR
The Progressive CorporationUS04/08/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.65%
P05–P95 span
11.77%
Neighbors
34
Sharpness
0.76
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+4.49%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.49%P25: -3.97%P50: -1.65%P75: 0.10%P95: 3.29%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 32.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.