Insights / us
PGR
The Progressive CorporationUS04/05/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.31%
P05–P95 span
13.24%
Neighbors
17
Sharpness
0.74
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+4.69%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.48%P25: -2.82%P50: -0.31%P75: 1.15%P95: 5.76%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 03:49 AM · ESS 16.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.