Insights / us
PFG
Principal Financial Group, Inc.US05/07/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-2.03%
P05–P95 span
6.92%
Neighbors
29
Sharpness
0.86
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+3.43%
Outer 90%
6/10(60%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.74%P25: -3.36%P50: -2.03%P75: -0.74%P95: 1.18%
Computed at: 05/08/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 28.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.