Insights / us
PCAR
PACCAR IncUS06/04/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.51%
P05–P95 span
10.66%
Neighbors
33
Sharpness
0.79
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
4 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+4
-0.03%
Outer 90%
4/4(100%)
Middle 50%
3/4(75%)
Above median
3/4(75%)
Below median
1/4(25%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.39%P25: -0.98%P50: 0.51%P75: 2.79%P95: 7.27%
Computed at: 06/05/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 32.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.