Insights / us
PCAR
PACCAR IncUS05/31/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.21%
P05–P95 span
14.71%
Neighbors
16
Sharpness
0.71
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
8 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+8
+7.99%
Outer 90%
1/8(13%)
Middle 50%
0/8(0%)
Above median
8/8(100%)
Below median
0/8(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -9.18%P25: -4.04%P50: -1.21%P75: 1.99%P95: 5.53%
Computed at: 06/01/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 15.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.