Insights / us
PCAR
PACCAR IncUS04/23/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.99%
P05–P95 span
10.87%
Neighbors
32
Sharpness
0.78
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-9.71%
Outer 90%
1/10(10%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
1/10(10%)
Below median
9/10(90%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -2.60%P25: -0.38%P50: 0.99%P75: 2.57%P95: 8.28%
Computed at: 04/24/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 31.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.