Insights / us
PAYX
Paychex, Inc.US05/19/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.50%
P05–P95 span
11.96%
Neighbors
38
Sharpness
0.76
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+6.56%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.64%P25: -1.49%P50: 0.50%P75: 2.41%P95: 7.32%
Computed at: 05/20/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 37.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.