NWSA

News CorporationUS04/08/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move
-1.22%
P05–P95 span
20.16%
Neighbors
30
Sharpness
0.60
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+6.22%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Aggregated distribution (density strip)

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -8.74%P25: -4.00%P50: -1.22%P75: 1.17%P95: 11.42%

Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 29.8 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.