Insights / us
NVR
NVR, Inc.US06/01/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.96%
P05–P95 span
14.12%
Neighbors
34
Sharpness
0.72
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
7 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+7
+5.93%
Outer 90%
7/7(100%)
Middle 50%
7/7(100%)
Above median
3/7(43%)
Below median
4/7(57%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.12%P25: -0.37%P50: 1.96%P75: 6.39%P95: 10.00%
Computed at: 06/02/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 33.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.