Insights / us
NVR
NVR, Inc.US05/12/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.03%
P05–P95 span
17.32%
Neighbors
20
Sharpness
0.65
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+7.16%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
6/10(60%)
Below median
4/10(40%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.60%P25: -2.18%P50: 0.03%P75: 1.69%P95: 8.72%
Computed at: 05/13/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 18.3 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.