Insights / us
NVDA
NVIDIA CorporationUS05/19/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.17%
P05–P95 span
16.14%
Neighbors
35
Sharpness
0.68
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-1.91%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
2/10(20%)
Below median
8/10(80%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -10.46%P25: -2.11%P50: -0.17%P75: 2.01%P95: 5.69%
Computed at: 05/20/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 34.3 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.