Insights / us
NVDA
NVIDIA CorporationUS04/20/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.55%
P05–P95 span
10.96%
Neighbors
37
Sharpness
0.78
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-2.79%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
5/10(50%)
Below median
5/10(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.11%P25: -0.85%P50: 0.55%P75: 2.77%P95: 7.84%
Computed at: 04/21/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 36.0 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.