Insights / us
NVDA
NVIDIA CorporationUS04/07/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.21%
P05–P95 span
9.28%
Neighbors
31
Sharpness
0.81
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+9.76%
Outer 90%
3/10(30%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.27%P25: -1.95%P50: -0.21%P75: 1.29%P95: 4.01%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 30.1 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.