Insights / us
NTRA
Natera IncUS06/03/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.16%
P05–P95 span
15.26%
Neighbors
25
Sharpness
0.69
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
5 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+5
+2.47%
Outer 90%
5/5(100%)
Middle 50%
2/5(40%)
Above median
5/5(100%)
Below median
0/5(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -10.07%P25: -3.83%P50: -1.16%P75: 1.08%P95: 5.19%
Computed at: 06/04/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 24.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.