Insights / us
NRG
NRG Energy, Inc.US05/21/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.74%
P05–P95 span
10.27%
Neighbors
28
Sharpness
0.79
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-6.86%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
1/10(10%)
Below median
9/10(90%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.29%P25: -0.61%P50: 0.74%P75: 2.38%P95: 5.98%
Computed at: 05/22/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 27.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.