Insights / us
NRG
NRG Energy, Inc.US04/22/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.15%
P05–P95 span
16.72%
Neighbors
10
Sharpness
0.67
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-5.24%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
7/10(70%)
Below median
3/10(30%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.15%P25: -1.32%P50: -0.15%P75: 0.80%P95: 10.56%
Computed at: 04/23/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 9.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.