Insights / us
NDAQ
Nasdaq, Inc.US05/19/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.13%
P05–P95 span
12.91%
Neighbors
34
Sharpness
0.74
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-3.15%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
7/10(70%)
Above median
4/10(40%)
Below median
6/10(60%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.90%P25: -2.04%P50: 0.13%P75: 2.35%P95: 7.01%
Computed at: 05/20/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 33.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.