Insights / us
NDAQ
Nasdaq, Inc.US04/28/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.22%
P05–P95 span
17.59%
Neighbors
36
Sharpness
0.65
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-0.87%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
3/10(30%)
Below median
7/10(70%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.54%P25: -1.10%P50: 0.22%P75: 2.41%P95: 11.05%
Computed at: 04/29/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 35.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.